Источник Daily Mail.co.uk, London, United Kingdom
Заголовок Investors are bailing out of Britain and there's an economic crisis brewing in Bonds. Now Business Editor HUGO DUNCAN reveals what it means for YOU.. and how Rachel Reeves is facing her own Liz Truss moment
Дата 20250109

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Investors are bailing out of Britain and there's an economic crisis• Финансовый кризис

• Экономика » Экономический кризис
brewing in
Bonds. Now Business• Экономика » Бизнес Editor HUGO DUNCAN reveals what it means for YOU.. and how
Rachel Reeves• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ри » Ривз, Рэйчел is facing her own Liz Truss moment

Investors are bailing out of Britain and there's an economic crisis• Финансовый кризис

• Экономика » Экономический кризис
brewing in
Bonds. Now Business• Экономика » Бизнес Editor HUGO DUNCAN reveals what it means for YOU.. and how
Rachel Reeves• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ри » Ривз, Рэйчел is facing her own Liz Truss moment

By HUGO DUNCAN

Published: 02:07 GMT, 9 January 2025 | Updated: 02:12 GMT, 9 January 2025

e-mail• Коммуникации » Интернет-коммуникации » Электронная почта

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The surge in UK borrowing costs to above the levels seen after the infamous
mini-Budget of 2022 raises a simple questionis Rachel Reeves• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ри » Ривз, Рэйчел facing her own
Liz Truss moment?

It was then, of course, that Labour coined its oft-repeated claim that the
Tories ‘crashed the economy’ after a sharp rise in gilt yields pushed mortgage
rates higher and wreaked havoc in the pensions industry.

The ‘bond vigilantes’ got their way, many of the tax cuts were reversed, and
Ms Truss was removed from high office.

Having vowed to re-establish economic stability, Labour is now facing its own
bond market crisis• Экономика » Экономический кризис in the wake of its first Budget for 14 years.

Borrowing costs have been steadily rising since Chancellor Reeves• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ри » Ривз, Рэйчел floated the
idea of fiddling the fiscal rules at the Labour Party• Политика » Политика Великобритании » Политические партии Великобритании » Лейбористская партия (Великобритания)

• Великобритания » Политика Великобритании » Политические партии Великобритании » Лейбористская партия (Великобритания)

• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Ле » Лейбористская партия (Великобритания)
conference in September
last year.

The ten-year gilt yield – a crucial measure of government borrowing costs that
feeds through to mortgage rates and other loans – stood below 3.8 per cent at
this point.

Borrowing costs have been steadily rising since Chancellor Rachel Reeves• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ри » Ривз, Рэйчел
floated the idea of fiddling the fiscal rules at the Labour Party• Политика » Политика Великобритании » Политические партии Великобритании » Лейбористская партия (Великобритания)

• Великобритания » Политика Великобритании » Политические партии Великобритании » Лейбористская партия (Великобритания)

• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Ле » Лейбористская партия (Великобритания)
conference
in September last year

Yesterday it topped 4.8 per cent for the first time since the financial crisis• Финансовый кризис
of 2008, having peaked at around 4.5 per cent under Ms Truss. Similarly, the
30-year gilt yield has risen from around 4.35 per cent in September to a
27-year high of 5.38 per cent last night – well above the 5 per cent peak of
the Truss era.

So, what is behind the rise in borrowing costs, and what does it mean for us
and the Chancellor?

Ms Reeves• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ри » Ривз, Рэйчелsupporters argue that borrowing costs have risen across the West,
most notably in the US, as investors weigh the prospect of new tariffs and an
extra $6 trillion of US debt under Donald Trump.

There are also concerns that the Bank of England will struggle to cut UK
interest rates due to stubbornly high inflation• Экономика » Финансы » Инфляция

• Экономика » Макроэкономика » Макроэкономические индикаторы » Инфляция
.

But as Mike Riddell at savings and investment giant Fidelity International
notes, ‘a worrying development in recent days’ is that borrowing costs have
risen more here than in other countries.

At the same time, the pound has fallen sharply against the dollar and the
euro.

The very real concern is that investors do not like what they see and are
bailing out of Britain . The combination of the weaker pound and rising gilt
yields ‘has eerie echoesof the Truss era, warns Mr Riddell, adding it ‘could
potentially be evidence of a buyer’s strike or capital flight’.

There are differences, of course, between then and now.

The rise in borrowing costs under Ms Reeves• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ри » Ривз, Рэйчел has been significant, but more
gradual than under Ms Truss.

At the same time, Ms Truss was hamstrung by the crisis• Экономика » Экономический кризис in the pensions
industry, which had left itself vulnerable by piling into what turned out to
be high-risk liability driven investments (LDIs).

And Ms Truss and her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng had ousted the Treasury’s most
senior civil servant and sought to bypass the Office for Budget
Responsibility.

Liz Truss outside 10 Downing Street when she announced her resignation as
Prime Minister

Read More

The harrowing stories of those left on the verge of suicide because of their
crypto addiction

The aim may have been to allow them to deliver a pro-growth Budget, but the
outcome was to undermine trust, leaving the bond markets to swoop.

For all the differences, however, the bond vigilantes are circling once again.
Misplaced hopes that the political stability brought about by a large Labour
majority would usher in a period of economic renewal have evaporated.

What international investors now see is economic stagnation• Финансовый кризис and an explosion
in state spending paid for by higher taxes, more borrowing and a ballooning
national debt as part of a decisive pivot from productive private enterprise
to the bloated public sector.

The Chancellor is now on the brink of breaking the fiscal rules she set
herself a little over two months ago.

The £9.9 billion of headroom her first Budget afforded her has disappeared –
wiped out by a £10 billion increase in the cost of borrowing and the dramatic
slowdown in the economy that was the fastest-growing in the G7 when she took
office six months ago.

Unless her luck changes, Ms Reeves• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ри » Ривз, Рэйчел will have to act in order to keep the OBR
onside when it publishes its latest assessment of the public finances on March
26.

To avoid a breach of her fiscal rules, her choices are stark.

She could either raise taxes again – inflicting further pain on businesses and
households grappling with elevated borrowing costs. And, of course, breaking
another pledge – having promised she would not come back for more after £40
billion of tax hikes in the Budget.

Or she could cut spending, putting her on a collision course with Cabinet
colleagues who face a hit to their departmental budgets, and her union
paymasters.

Ms Reeves• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ри » Ривз, Рэйчел is quickly learning what happens when the fantasy economics of
Opposition collide with the realities of government.

If the situation under Ms Truss was acute – and as such, over very quickly –
with Reeves• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ри » Ривз, Рэйчел it is chronic. It has every chance of getting worse the longer it
goes on.

Rachel Reeves• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ри » Ривз, Рэйчел Labour Liz Truss

============= Итог: 4,4750 ; Экономика#Экономический кризис#Финансовый кризис 2,4750 ; Экономика#Бизнес 3,1562 ; Политика#Политика Великобритании#Политические партии Великобритании #Лейбористская партия (Великобритания)#Ривз, Рэйчел 3,0000 ; Финансовый кризис#Экономический кризис 3,0000 ; Финансовый кризис#Инфляция 1,3125 ; Коммуникации#Интернет-коммуникации#Электронная почта

============= Объекты: персоналии Ривз, Рэйчел Канцлер казначейства Великобритании организации Лейбористская партия (Великобритания) Политические партии Великобритании

============= Связи: Лейбористская партия (Великобритания) # ассоциации-4 # Ривз, Рэйчел Финансовый кризис # ассоциации # Инфляция Финансовый кризис # ассоциации # Экономический кризис


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