Crypto
cool, ‘
El Loco’ and a 2900
per cent gain in 20 seconds
Crypto cool, ‘El Loco’ and a 2900 per cent gain in 20 seconds
By Dave Liedtka , Emily Graffeo , Vildana Hajric , Natalia Kniazhevich , Kevin
Simauchi , Davison Santana , Vinícius Andrade , Ye Xie , Yiqin Shen , Carmen
Arroyo , Reshmi Basu , Iris Ouyang , Tasos Vossos and Matthew Burgess
December 26, 2024 — 3.24pm
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The speculative retail frenzy, the relentless AI disruption, the
out-of-this-world• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Am » Amiga » Игры Для Amiga » Another World crypto rally. In a year full of shocks and surprises, global
markets offered investors opportunities to flourish – or flop – in equal
measure. Leveraged trades in August briefly blew up. Wall Street’s big gamble
on Donald Trump• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Тр » Трамп, Дональд paid off. Hedge funds with complex strategies took hits.
Investors who kept it simple in cash or tech stocks proved smart.
Crypto: To the moon and beyond
It was the year Wall Street – and the incoming White House• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США) » Политика США » Политики США » Президент США » Белый дом (США)
• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США) » Государственное устройство США » Президент США » Белый дом (США)
• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США) » Населенные пункты США » Города США » Вашингтон » Белый дом (США)
• Государство » Государственное устройство США » Президент США » Белый дом (США)
• Политика » Политика США » Политики США » Президент США » Белый дом (США) – helped create a
booming crypto-investment• Экономика » Финансы » Инвестиции complex that left the world of traditional finance
stunned.
While bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin had already staged a remarkable comeback in 2023, the January
approval of US• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Доллар США Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin exchange-traded funds served as a further catalyst for
gains in the world’s biggest digital asset. But it was Donald Trump• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Тр » Трамп, Дональд’s victory
in November that truly turbocharged the market, sparking a record-breaking
rally that saw the OG cryptocurrency• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта crack the $US100,000 ($160,000) level.
Donald Trump• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Тр » Трамп, Дональд’s victory in November turbocharged the crypto market• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта, sparking a
record-breaking rally. Credit: Bloomberg• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Ко » Bloomberg
Along the way, traders poured more than $US100 billion into the ETFs, paving
the way for similar crypto-related investment• Экономика » Финансы » Инвестиции vehicles. At the opposite
extreme, activity in meme coins, which often trade for a fraction of a cent,
exploded.
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Trump• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Тр » Трамп, Дональд, a one-time bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin sceptic turned advocate (and DeFi entrepreneur),
galvanised the digital-asset community with promises to reverse a US• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Доллар США crypto
crackdown under President• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США) » Политика США » Политики США » Президент США
• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США) » Государственное устройство США » Президент США
• Государство » Государственное устройство США » Президент США
• Политика » Политика США » Политики США » Президент США Joe Biden• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ба » Байден, Джо and make America the centre of the
industry. In the weeks after the election, he announced the newly created post
of tsar for AI and crypto, and named industry proponent Paul Atkins to replace
crypto nemesis Gary Gensler at the Securities and Exchange Commission.
One of the most popular, and contentious, trades during the recent rally: A
bet on the volatility of the shares of bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy co-founder
and chairman Michael Saylor has accumulated bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin, now worth more than $US40
billion, through a combination of at-the-market stock sales and convertible
bond offerings.
The more than fivefold surge in the company’s shares this year has fuelled
demand from investors for the stock. At the same time, hedge funds have been
snapping up the bonds, which power profitable bets that exploit the surging
volatility of the underlying asset. Meanwhile, Saylor, whose four-year
bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin-buying strategy has appeared fanatical to the TradFi community, can
enjoy some vindication, at least for now.
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ETFs: Speculation run wild
In a year when red-hot US• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Доллар США stocks and crypto sparked furious risk-taking, ETFs
(exchange traded funds) have been day traders’ go-to investment• Экономика » Финансы » Инвестиции. Wall Street
pounced on the public’s desire for speculative wagers, launching all kinds of
derivative-powered bets, from a bulled-up ETF designed to deliver twice the
return of bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin, to income-generating products that short the biggest names
in corporate America.
For those on the other side of the risk spectrum, there is now a money market
ETF.
Trading boomed in products that allow investors to amp up bets on the world’s
most popular equities, with investors pouring a record of more than $US6.5
billion into such “single-stock ETFs” – vehicles that track just a single
company but use derivatives to intensify bullish or bearish wagers.
A major winner in this category was a fund from GraniteShares, which provides
two times the daily returns of market powerhouse Nvidia. The strategy, which
trades under the ticker NVDL, saw assets explode to a peak of $US6.7 billion
in late November, with returns exceeding 350 per cent this year. Funds
tracking MicroStrategy, Tesla• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Te » Tesla Motors and Coinbase Global have followed similar paths.
This year also set a record for US• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Доллар США ETF fund flows, with Trump• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Тр » Трамп, Дональд’s presidential
victory giving already emboldened investors even more incentive to double
down. And while funds that track the S&P 500• Экономика » Финансы » Финансовый рынок » Рынок ценных бумаг » Биржи » Биржевые индексы » S&P 500 took the most flows, one of
this year’s most notable new entrants, BlackRock’s Bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin ETF, was also one
of the biggest successes, drawing the third-most inflows this year.
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Stocks: Market timers schooled
Day traders may have made a killing across speculative fringes of the
investment• Экономика » Финансы » Инвестиции industry, but it’s been a real struggle in the more mainstream
world of large-cap stocks. Thank awkward market timing. Retail investors
loaded up on so-called meme stocks in the first half of the year, only to see
buzzed-up companies trail the broader market after surging for no rhyme or
reason.
In the second half, mom and pop then ditched financial companies en masse –
only for the cohort to ride the “Trump• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Тр » Трамп, Дональд trade” wave and become the S&P
500• Экономика » Финансы » Финансовый рынок » Рынок ценных бумаг » Биржи » Биржевые индексы » S&P 500’s biggest gainers between July and November. And like many investors
during the brief market crash in August, the retail crowd panic-sold some of
their hottest assets, including Nvidia and Tesla• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Te » Tesla Motors – all at the lows. That
proved painful. Shares of Elon Musk• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ма » Маск, Илон’s EV-maker, for example, have almost
doubled since then.
Investors who sold Tesla• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Te » Tesla Motors shares during the brief market crash in August have
paid a hefty price for their mistake. Credit: Michael Nagle
It’s not just the so-called dumb money, though. Even in a climate ripe for
stock pickers, the mutual-fund pros, who make a living picking securities,
have been caught flat-footed.
As the S&P 500• Экономика » Финансы » Финансовый рынок » Рынок ценных бумаг » Биржи » Биржевые индексы » S&P 500 soared 5.7 per cent in November in its best run in a year,
just 23 per cent of large-cap mutual funds outperformed their benchmarks, the
group’s worst performance since the Fed• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США) » Экономика США » Макроэкономика США » Федеральная резервная система США
• Экономика » Экономика США » Макроэкономика США » Федеральная резервная система США
• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Фе » Федеральная резервная система США started hiking rates in March 2022,
according to Bank of America• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США) » Экономика США » Банки США » Bank of America
• Экономика » Экономика США » Банки США » Bank of America
• Экономика » Финансы » Банк » Банки США » Bank of America
• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Ba » Bank of America. The underperformance is particularly stark,
given that more than half of S&P 500• Экономика » Финансы » Финансовый рынок » Рынок ценных бумаг » Биржи » Биржевые индексы » S&P 500 members outperformed the index – a
broadening of the market rally that, in theory at least, should have been a
boon for active managers.
Argentina• Аргентина: Shock-ing gains
Long-suffering investors in Argentina• Аргентина were running for the exits ahead of a
key presidential vote last year. Sovereign dollar bonds were trading below 30¢
on the dollar as the economy buckled under triple-digit inflation and a
labyrinth of currency controls. The surprise emergence of outsider Javier
Milei as the winner in the primary vote only added to worries.
The radical libertarian – distinguished by his mop of unruly hair• Медицина » Анатомия » Системы органов » Покровная система » Волосы, Elvis
sideburns• Медицина » Анатомия » Системы органов » Покровная система » Волосы » Бакенбарды, and four cloned Mastiff dogs – had promised to dollarise the
economy and close the central bank altogether. And yet by the time he won the
election in November, investors had bought in. Now, roughly one year into his
term, Milei’s “shock therapy,” including stringent fiscal austerity to balance
the budget and bring down inflation, appears to be working , boosting
confidence about the economic trajectory among voters and investors.
Argentina• Аргентина’s new President• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США) » Политика США » Политики США » Президент США
• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США) » Государственное устройство США » Президент США
• Государство » Государственное устройство США » Президент США
• Политика » Политика США » Политики США » Президент США Javier Milei speaking outside Congress in Buenos
Aires• Аргентина » Буэнос-Айрес. Credit: AP
The country’s debt delivered some of the best returns in emerging markets• Экономика » Финансы » Инвестиции » Развивающиеся рынки this
year, surging 104 per cent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Ко » Bloomberg. Firms
that scooped up the notes throughout 2024 – such as Neuberger Berman,
Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co, and Lazard Asset Management – saw major
windfalls.
“We essentially made the call that Milei could be transformational,” said
Gorky Urquieta, portfolio manager for emerging-markets• Экономика » Финансы » Инвестиции » Развивающиеся рынки debt at Neuberger.
Unlike Milei’s dogs, the 2024 rally is unlikely to be replicated any time
soon, and many questions remain. Milei has yet to lift currency controls,
foreign investment• Экономика » Финансы » Инвестиции has declined, and the country is in talks with the
International Monetary Fund• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Ме » Международный валютный фонд (МВФ) ahead of debt payments that go up substantially in
2025 and 2026. Still, as first years go, “El Loco” proved a boon for
investors.
Treasuries: Cash is bond king
Fixed-income investors reaped big and easy rewards by following a strategy of
not trading at all: stashing their money into risk-free Treasury-bills – an
equivalent to cash – to beat US government• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США) » Государственное устройство США » Правительство США
• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Пр » Правительство США
• Государство » Государственное устройство США » Правительство США bonds in style.
US• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Доллар США Treasuries gained 0.7 per cent on average this year through December 18,
compared with a 5.1 per cent return in T-bills. It marked a fourth year that
bonds underperformed cash, a record since Bloomberg• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Ко » Bloomberg started compiling the data
on T-bill returns in 1991. Over the past four years, bills returned a total of
12 per cent, compared with a loss of 10 per cent in government• Государство » Законы и право » Теория государства и права » Правительство bonds.
US• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Доллар США money-market funds – which hold cash-like instruments such as T-bills and
commercial paper – have grown by more than $US800 billion ($1.3 trillion) this
year, swelling their assets to $US7 trillion for the first time as investors
piled in. Also among the hoarders? Warren Buffett• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Wa » Баффетт, Уоррен’s Berkshire Hathaway• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Be » Berkshire Hathaway, Inc., whose
Treasury bill holdings more than doubled this year to approach $US300 billion
as of the third quarter.
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. At the start of 2024, the consensus view
was for slowing US• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Доллар США growth, perhaps even recession, and a series of as many as
seven Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. This, it was thought, would pave the
way for a banner year for bonds. Instead, a resilient economy led the central
bank to deliver less easing than expected, and prompted policymakers at their
most recent meeting to scale back their forecast for rate cuts in 2025. That’s
kept yields on risk-free cash equivalents at elevated levels even as
longer-term US• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Доллар США debt endured swings.
Things are beginning to change, though, and next year is likely to be more
challenging for the “T-bill and chill” crowd. After a more than two-year
stretch during which rates on bills exceeded those on longer-term US• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Доллар США debt,
that yield advantage has disappeared, erasing a gap that was almost 1.5
percentage points as of the beginning of 2024. The trend is likely to continue
if the Fed• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США) » Экономика США » Макроэкономика США » Федеральная резервная система США
• Экономика » Экономика США » Макроэкономика США » Федеральная резервная система США
• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Фе » Федеральная резервная система США keeps lowering rates as expected, though Donald Trump• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Тр » Трамп, Дональд’s pro-growth
push for tariffs and tax cuts may muddy the path for policymakers.
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More importantly, bonds have re-emerged as a hedge for risky assets, such as
stocks whose valuations are at historic highs. “If equities were to fall,
you’re going to get appreciation on your Treasury portfolio,” said Ford
O’Neil, a bond manager at Fidelity Investments. “That obviously won’t be the
case in T-bills.”
‘Arbageddon’: Hell in a handbag
What was expected to be a comeback year for merger arbitrage turned out to be
anything but. The trading strategy was the worst performer this year among
more than 30 hedge-fund styles tracked by Bloomberg• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Ко » Bloomberg through October. Its 3 per
cent return in the period barely rewarded investors for the risk.
While the volume of global announced deals climbed in 2024, arbs’ playbook –
betting on whether and when proposed transactions will close – came under
pressure, with the regulatory backdrop under Biden• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ба » Байден, Джо and his hard-charging head
of the Federal Trade Commission, Lina Khan, making even agreed-upon deals
tough to get done.
One of the more painful episodes involved a proposed handbag tie-up meant to
unite Tapestry and its Coach• Объект бренды » Бренды на c » Coach and Kate Spade brands with Capri Holdings’
Michael Kors label. Even after the FTC challenged the $US8.5 billion deal on
antitrust grounds, a raft of investors, including Millennium Management,
maintained positions in Capri, wagering that a subsequent legal appeal brought
by the companies would be decided in their favour. Instead, a federal judge in
October sided with the FTC and blocked the deal, sending shares of Capri down
nearly 50 per cent and dealing a huge blow to the arb crowd.
A little over a month later, the FTC scored another win as a judge ruled to
block the $US24.6 billion grocery merger between Albertsons and Kroger• Объект бренды » Бренды на k » Kroger, while
the pending $US14 billion ($22 billion) sale of United States• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США) Steel to a
Japanese competitor is on shaky ground amid mounting opposition from unions as
well as Biden• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ба » Байден, Джо over national security• Государство » Национальная безопасность
• Безопасность » Национальная безопасность concerns. As some of traders’ biggest
wagers went sour throughout the year, staff at Millennium, Balyasny Asset
Management and Schonfeld Strategic Advisors paid the price, with all three
firms cutting some portfolio managers specialising in the strategy.
Japan: Keep calm and carry on
On the first Monday of August, a reliable and highly popular trade involving
borrowed yen to buy risky securities collapsed suddenly, driven by a small
policy shift from the Bank of Japan – and it fuelled a global market meltdown
in its wake. Investors rushed to exit positions in everything from Australian
bonds and US• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Доллар США mega-cap stocks to bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin, fearing a breakdown in the leverage
cycle amid uncertainties over the monetary and economic outlook.
Among the biggest losers: Emerging-market• Экономика » Финансы » Инвестиции » Развивающиеся рынки carry trades funded by the Japanese
currency, with most of the strategy’s gains for the year wiped out as
investors unwound a whopping 75 per cent of their investments. Then, as is now
Wall Street folklore, the great market crash of 2024 ended almost as soon as
it began, and risk appetite returned with a vengeance across assets.
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Boosting currency-market sentiment afresh in October: Japanese Prime Minister• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Пр » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии
• Государство » Государственное устройство Японии » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии
• Япония » Государственное устройство Японии » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии
Shigeru Ishiba• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ис » Исиба, Сигэру on his first day in office said the economy was far from ready
for fresh monetary tightening.
In turn, a basket of emerging-market• Экономика » Финансы » Инвестиции » Развивающиеся рынки currencies funded by the yen has now
returned about 13 per cent this year through Thursday despite the volatility,
with the Japanese currency defying projections from the likes of BNY that it
could strengthen to as high as 100 per dollar as more shorts were unwound.
Cue vindication of sorts for FX brokers at the likes of AT Global Markets and
Pepperstone Group, who were quick to call the revival of the infamous
yen-funded trade.
Commercial real estate: Lease on life
For investors this year, office real estate has been a tale of 2008-style
losses and surprising wins. A slew of bondholders stuck with old debt tied to
offices have taken hits, even in the safest bonds.
In May, buyers of AAA-rated tranches of a bond tied to a building in midtown
Manhattan at 1740 Broadway got less than three-quarters of their original
investment• Экономика » Финансы » Инвестиции back. That was the first such loss of the post-crisis era, and more
pain may be coming. Yet amid this trouble, a cohort of bargain chasers are
likely to have flourished.
Ellington Management Group, Beach Point Capital Management, Balbec Capital,
Mica Creek Capital Partners, and TPG Angelo Gordon have all been active CMBS
buyers this year.
One source of potential gains is when there’s fear of a key tenant walking
away from a building, and the corporate occupant instead ends up renewing its
lease. For example, the riskiest portions of a $US271 million bond tied to the
11-storey office and retail building at 85 Tenth Avenue in New York, by the
Chelsea Market, were trading at around 63¢ on the dollar at the start of the
year.
The building is largely dependent on a single tenant whose lease was up for
renewal: Google• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Go » Google (компания). When the tech giant announced it would renew the lease in
October, the bonds’ price jumped, and they are now trading at almost 90¢ on
the dollar, delivering big returns for dip buyers along the way.
Distressed Debt: AI to the rescue
To get a sense of how the AI euphoria suddenly changed the game for corporate
America, consider the case of Talen Energy. Following the nuclear energy
player’s fall into bankruptcy last year, the firm’s fortunes took a marked
turn for the better after it struck a deal to sell a data centre campus and
supply energy to Amazon Web Services• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Am » Amazon Web Services
• Информационные технологии » Облачные вычисления » Amazon Web Services.
Creditors-turned-shareholders promptly enjoyed a jump in the value of their
equity, up now more than 200 per cent on the year. Given the vast amounts of
power needed to fuel the artificial intelligence boom, the likes of Talen are
on a tear.
The United States• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США) has in excess of 90 nuclear reactors, more than any other
country, and is heavily reliant on imported uranium. Credit: AFP
Another once-unloved name that saw a boost from AI was Lumen. Last year, the
telecommunications firm conducted one of the largest and most controversial
distressed-debt exchanges ever.
The company cut a deal with a group of investors including Ken Griffin’s
Citadel to swap some securities tied to one of its units into longer-dated,
higher-coupon maturities, while raising fresh funding. In return, those
investors received priority claims on assets, stripping other creditors of
their collateral.
This year, the trade turned into a big win even for the creditors that had
been left out of the transaction, as the company has been able to tap into
growing demand for its fibre network among AI-focused firms. As of August, the
company had secured $US5 billion ($8 billion) in new business• Экономика » Бизнес, including a
deal with Microsoft to expand its network capacity.
China: Twin revival
China-focused investors entered 2024 disappointed, with many still feeling
burned after an expected economic revival failed to materialise despite
government• Государство » Законы и право » Теория государства и права » Правительство efforts to stoke growth and relieve an entrenched property crisis.
As the doldrums of the world’s second-largest economy weighed on assets from
the Australian dollar to the Thai baht, Fidelity International made a bet on
Chinese bonds – one that paid off handsomely.
‘Chinese stocks obviously offer more bang for your buck in terms of trying to
get China right next year.’ Matthew Quaife, global head of Multi Asset
Investment Management
Since at least January, the money manager had favoured Chinese debt, wagering
in part that the central bank would need to loosen monetary policy. Abrdn,
meanwhile, had started to go long 10-year and 30-year notes since October.
What transpired was a record-breaking rally in Chinese bonds so strong that
authorities ramped up intervention measures, while big banks were seen selling
government• Государство » Законы и право » Теория государства и права » Правительство bonds to try and cool the market.
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How hot was the rally? An ETF tracking 30-year Chinese government• Государство » Законы и право » Теория государства и права » Правительство bonds has
returned some 21 per cent this year.
Expectations are growing the rally will extend after the Politburo, the
Communist Party’s decision-making body, pledged a “moderately loose” monetary
policy to support the economy, in language not seen since the global financial
crisis.
Chinese stocks, too, have paid off for investors after touching a low in
January. The benchmark CSI 300 Index is up more than 14 per cent this year in
dollar terms, its first annual gain after three years of losses. Fidelity
International is maintaining its bet in Chinese bonds, though expects the
nation’s stocks to offer a better return going forward should the economy
finally start to gain meaningful moment.
“Chinese stocks obviously offer more bang for your buck in terms of trying to
get China right next year,” Matthew Quaife, global head of Multi Asset
Investment Management, said.
Spain Gain: A 2900 per cent payout
Perhaps the wildest and most out of the blue rally of them all comes from a
niche market in Madrid, Spain. How wild? Try 2900 per cent in the span of
seconds.
The whole thing was some 20 years in the making. The short version: A bond was
issued in the early aughts by a bank that was taken over by a bank that was
taken over by another bank, and at some point in all of that manoeuvring,
investors gave up on the bond. Most wrote it off as practically worthless, due
to all the ownership shenanigans.
And so it remained for years until one day in September they received a note
from Banco Santander (the last of the acquirers) informing them that the bond
– a special note that banks issue to raise capital levels – would be honoured
after all.
Its value skyrocketed instantaneously. Santander never said much about why it
made the payment, but observers speculate it was related to the tidying up of
its balance sheet.
Bloomberg L.P• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Ко » Bloomberg.
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