Exclusive
Trump 2.0 Crypto Regulation
Outlook:
Top Lawyer Explains What s
Ahead
Donald Trump s victory in the 2024 US presidential election has sent
ripples through the crypto industry, signaling what could be a seismic shift
in the US regulatory landscape.
To understand the implications of this political change, we sat down with
Lewis R. Cohen , a leading authority in cryptocurrency• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта law and partner at
Cahill Gordon & Reindel LLP. With extensive experience navigating the
intersection of blockchain• Информационные технологии » Информационно-коммуникационные технологии » Информационные технологии и телекоммуникации » Базы данных » Публичная база транзакций » Блокчейн
• Высокие технологии » Информационные технологии и телекоммуникации » Базы данных » Публичная база транзакций » Блокчейн technology and regulatory frameworks, Cohen
provides unique insights into what could be the most significant regulatory
pivot for the crypto industry since its inception.
What immediate changes can we expect in crypto regulation under Trump s
second term, particularly regarding key regulatory agencies like the SEC and
CFTC?
The most immediate impact will come through leadership transitions at key
regulatory agencies. While at the SEC, there are some constraints — Gary
Gensler s term runs until 2026 and we can t just remove sitting
Commissioners — we might see Commissioner Hester Peirce stepping in as Acting
Chair.
But the real swift changes could happen at other agencies. The CFPB Director
can be removed without cause, and at the OCC, Acting Comptroller Hsu can be
replaced immediately. These changes would automatically shift the FDIC board
to Republican control. At the CFTC, we could see either Commissioner Pham or
Mersinger taking the helm.
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There s talk about a shift from regulation by enforcement
to a different approach. Could you elaborate on how this new regulatory
philosophy might look?
Based on what we saw during Trump s first term, we re looking at a
fundamental shift in regulatory philosophy. Instead of the current
gotcha approach focusing on technical violations like
registration failures, we expect to see enforcement priorities realign with
addressing real market risks — think fraud, market manipulation, and serious
misconduct that harm investors.
The key difference will be in how cases are handled. You ll likely see
more balanced settlement terms, particularly in technical violation cases, and
more practical remediation requirements. But let me be clear — this
doesn t mean no enforcement. Rather, it s about having a more
nuanced, market-friendly approach that focuses on correcting informational
asymmetries while allowing innovation to flourish. It s regulation with
a scalpel rather than a sledgehammer.
How do you see the classification of major cryptocurrencies• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта evolving,
particularly regarding tokens like SOL , ADA, and AVAX in relation to
ETH s commodity status?
We re seeing a significant shift in the crypto classification landscape.
The SEC recognizes both BTC and ETH as commodities, and recent court rulings
have further complicated attempts to classify all tokens under a blanket
securities designation.
Those tokens like SOL, ADA, AVAX, and DOT share fundamental characteristics
with ETH . Recent court decisions regarding BNB and XRP secondary market
transactions are also pointing towards a more nuanced regulatory approach.
What this means in practical terms is that trading and other third-party
activities involving these assets would likely carry substantially reduced
securities law risks. The market s maturing, and our regulatory
framework needs to reflect that reality.
Could you explain the expected timeline for these regulatory changes? When
might the industry start seeing concrete impacts?
The timeline here is pretty clear-cut. While the transition period will be
crucial with the current administration likely pushing through last-minute
actions, we re looking at the first two quarters of 2025 for significant
changes.
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The broader policy shifts will unfold over the following 6 to 12 months. Some
changes, like at the CFPB and OCC, can happen quickly through leadership
transitions, but others, especially at the SEC, will take more time due to
staggered commissioner terms.
How might state-level regulation, particularly in traditionally strict
jurisdictions like New York, respond to this potential federal deregulation?
Here s an interesting dynamic to watch: as federal oversight becomes
more accommodative, we might actually see more aggressive enforcement at the
state level, particularly in jurisdictions like New York that have
historically taken a harder line on crypto. The irony is that a more
business• Экономика » Бизнес-friendly approach at federal agencies like the SEC could actually
reduce the urgency for comprehensive federal legislation.
When that happens, states that have been traditionally skeptical of crypto
activity often step up their enforcement efforts to fill what they perceive as
a regulatory gap. This could create a complex patchwork of compliance
requirements for industry players.
What s the outlook for crypto legislation in Congress, particularly
regarding existing bills and bipartisan efforts?
The landscape in Congress is shifting significantly. While the House-passed
FIT21 bill likely won t move forward, I m more interested in the
thoughtful market structure legislation being developed in the Senate. Senator
Lummis and others have spent years building a bipartisan coalition, and that
groundwork will likely serve as the foundation for new legislation.
However, here s the interesting twist: with a more accommodative
regulatory approach at federal agencies, we might see less urgency for
comprehensive legislation. Market participants might find administrative
rulemaking sufficient for their immediate needs.
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Regarding the crypto advocacy that Trump has driven, does it have something to
do with the US-China rivalry?
It s difficult to fully understand what s happening behind the
scenes, especially with Trump. In my view, it s relevant, but it s
hard to pinpoint exactly how. A major issue is the distribution of the US
national debt, particularly with China being one of the largest holders next
to Japan.
Tokenization could potentially play a significant role here. By tokenizing
dollar-denominated debt, especially government debt, the US could diversify
away from relying so heavily on China as a key holder. This could strengthen
the US s financial position and reduce its dependence on China, which,
in turn, might influence the broader geopolitical landscape.
I’d like to believe that thoughtful individuals in the US government• Государство » Государственное устройство США » Правительство США
• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Пр » Правительство США
• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США) » Государственное устройство США » Правительство США recognize
the importance of this, but it’s genuinely hard to say if that’s the case. The
relationship is incredibly complex, and while it makes sense to see these
moves as strategic, it’s not entirely clear if that s the driving force
behind the shift.
Trump has mentioned establishing a federal Bitcoin reserve. How realistic is
this proposal?
Honestly, I m pretty skeptical about whether there would be broad
support for the idea of using crypto as a strategic reserve asset , and
I m not even convinced it s a good idea. If I were a Bitcoin
supporter, the last thing I d want is for the government• Государство » Законы и право » Теория государства и права » Правительство to control a
large amount of Bitcoin. Sure, Trump might be a supporter right now, but what
happens if the next administration isn’t? They could easily decide to dump a
massive amount of Bitcoin on the market, which could crash the price and cause
chaos.
While some people might see it as the government• Государство » Законы и право » Теория государства и права » Правительство endorsing Bitcoin’s
importance, I think that misses the point. The real value of Bitcoin isn’t
about hitting a specific price target so that people can sell it off for quick
profits; it’s about creating an alternative financial system.
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The idea of locking up a bunch of Bitcoin in the hands of the US government• Государство » Государственное устройство США » Правительство США
• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Пр » Правительство США
• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США) » Государственное устройство США » Правительство США
just doesn’t align with that vision. There’s too much volatility and too many
political risks involved, so I just don’t see it as a smart move.
What should the crypto industry expect during the pre-inauguration transition
period?
The transition period is going to be particularly delicate. We re likely
to see the current administration working to finalize pending rules and
potentially accelerating new enforcement actions while they still have the
authority. It s a typical last push scenario we often see
during transitions.
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Industry players need to stay especially vigilant during this period, as it
could create a complex regulatory environment where we re dealing with
both the outgoing administration s final moves and preparing for the
incoming team s different approach. This period will essentially set the
stage for the broader changes we expect to see in 2025.
Who or what do you think could be a key figure or key indicator to watch for
changes in Web 3 policies of the new administration?
I think the most important figure to watch would be the person appointed as
Treasury Secretary. This role sets the tone for most of the
administration s domestic and foreign policy• Политика » Геополитика » Международные отношения » Внешняя политика
• Темы документов (документы) » Внешняя политика. Typically, a position of
that level is appointed early on, sometimes even before the Secretary of
State. Honestly, regarding crypto, the Secretary of State might not be as
relevant, but the Treasury Secretary certainly would be.
Ideally, it would be someone at least familiar with crypto or, at the very
least, not outright hostile towards it. They don’t need to be a huge
supporter, but it would be helpful if they weren’t known for being
anti-crypto. That would be something to watch closely.
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