Japan general election: what would
it take for the ruling LDP
party to be ousted?
Japan general election: what would it take for the ruling LDP party to be
ousted?
Justin McCurry in Tokyo
Corruption scandals, an economic crisis• Финансовый кризис and widespread leader dissatisfaction
have dogged the party yet it remains in contention. All eyes are now on
whether it will secure a majority
Fri 18 Oct 2024 00.01 BST Last modified on Fri 18 Oct 2024 00.02 BST
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Bruised by months of financial scandals , a cost-of-living crisis and
unpopular leaders, some might be forgiven for expecting to see the end of
Japan’s beleaguered ruling Liberal Democratic party• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Ли » Либерально-демократическая партия (Япония)
• Япония » Политика Японии » Политические партии Японии » Либерально-демократическая партия (Япония)
• Политика » Политика Японии » Политические партии Японии » Либерально-демократическая партия (Япония) (LDP), which has been in
office for most of the past seven decades.
The election on 27 October will take place a year earlier than many had
expected, following the surprise resignation of the former prime minister• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Пр » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии
• Япония » Государственное устройство Японии » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии
• Государство » Государственное устройство Японии » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии,
Fumio Kishida• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ки » Кисида, Фумио, following record low approval ratings and public anger over his
party’s apparent addiction to in “money politics”.
His successor, Shigeru Ishiba• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ис » Исиба, Сигэру , was selected last month by party MPs and
rank-and-file member to revive the LDP’s fortunes and douse the flames of a
factional war that saw Ishiba• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ис » Исиба, Сигэру narrowly fend off a challenge from the party’s
right.
Who is Japan’s new prime minister• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Пр » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии
• Япония » Государственное устройство Японии » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии
• Государство » Государственное устройство Японии » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии, Shigeru Ishiba• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ис » Исиба, Сигэру?
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Yet even at a time of political turmoil, polling suggests many believe the
party will go into the 465-seat lower house election reasonably confident it
would be returned to office for the fifth time in succession.
Some polls even showed the LDP would retain its majority, aided by a projected
low turnout and a divided opposition. A poll last weekend by the Kyodo news
agency put the LDP on 26.4%, well ahead of the main opposition Constitutional
Democratic party on 12.4%.
However, a new poll by the Nikkei suggests the party could fail to secure a
majority – a result that the business newspaper says would “potentially set
the stage for political turmoil not seen since 2009”, which is the last time
the party lost a lower house election.
The LDP is aiming to retain at least 233 seats to secure an outright majority
– a modest ambition given its current total of 256 seats.
A PM under pressure
The party’s dominance of Japan’s postwar political landscape has not been
absolute. In 2009, voters ousted the LDP in a shock result that saw the
left-of-centre Democratic Party of Japan• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Де » Демократическая Партия Японии (DPJ) take office under prime
minister• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Пр » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии
• Япония » Государственное устройство Японии » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии
• Государство » Государственное устройство Японии » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии Yukio Hatoyama• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ха » Хатояма, Юкио. For once, the traditionally fragmented opposition had
achieved a level of unity that made the DPJ a serious electoral prospect.
Analysts attributed the DPJ’s victory to fallout from the 2008 global
financial crisis• Финансовый кризис, a growing income gap, a damaging scandal over the loss of
millions of pension records and the LDP’s deeply unpopular prime minister• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Пр » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии
• Япония » Государственное устройство Японии » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии
• Государство » Государственное устройство Японии » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии,
Taro Aso• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ас » Асо, Таро, whose cabinet approval rating• Рейтинги » Рейтинг going into the election sank to just
over 16%.
The LDP’s time in the wilderness was short lived, however. Hatoyama lasted
less than a year, forced out by his failure to realise a campaign pledge to
reduce the US military burden on the southern island of Okinawa. His two
successors fared little better, and at the end of 2012 normal service resumed
with the election of an LDP government led by Shinzo Abe• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Си » Абэ, Синдзо .
Tobias Harris, founder of the advisory firm Japan Foresight, said Ishiba• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ис » Исиба, Сигэру could
struggle to introduce legislation if the LDP and Komeito together lose enough
seats to weaken the coalition’s control of key parliamentary committees.
That would “not only fundamentally undermine his claims to be an electoral
asset for the party … but would also compromise any efforts to clean up and
modernise the party and unify it under his leadership”, Harris said.
Ishiba• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ис » Исиба, Сигэру’s victory in the LDP leadership race raised hopes that a gentler
version of LDP would emerge from the upheaval of recent months. He is widely
seen as a moderate alternative to the ultra-conservative Sanae Takaichi , his
main rival.
The 67-year-old, a softly spoken former banker whose hobby is making model
warplanes and ships, had indicated he supported same-sex marriages , reigning
empresses and the right of married couples to use different surnames – social
and cultural shifts his party has opposed, in defiance of public opinion.
Ishiba• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ис » Исиба, Сигэру had also vowed to take tough action against LDP lawmakers who plunged
the party into crisis after revelations they had siphoned unreported profits
from the sale of tickets for party events into secret slush funds. Concerns
linger, too, over his party’s ties to the scandal-hit Unification church .
But in an apparent attempt to placate his rightwing opponents inside the LDP,
Ishiba• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ис » Исиба, Сигэру has backpedalled since becoming prime minister• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Пр » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии
• Япония » Государственное устройство Японии » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии
• Государство » Государственное устройство Японии » Кабинет министров Японии » Премьер-министр Японии, telling parliament last
week that changing the law on married surnames – in which women almost always
take their husband’s name – and the ban on gay marriages “require further
examination”. He refused to comment on any reforms to Japan’s male-only
succession laws .
Critics have also accused him of abandoning promises to address the funding
scandal. The LDP has refused to endorse 12 candidates found to have committed
the most serious misdemeanours but will not oppose them at the election.
Ishiba• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ис » Исиба, Сигэру has said they may even be welcomed back into the LDP fold if they win.
And while a record 314 women will be competing for seats – female MPs
currently make up just over a tenth of all lower house members – the lower
house is not expected to look dramatically different. About 10% of all
candidates hail from political families , including Ishiba• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ис » Исиба, Сигэру, who “inherited”
his father’s former seat in rural Tottori prefecture in 1986.
Премьер-министр Японии в 2006-2007 и 2012-2020 годах, 1954-2022. Премьер-министр Японии (2012/12/26-2020/09/16) Асо, Таро
Министр финансов Японии Премьер-министр Японии (2008/09/24-2009/09/16) Исиба, Сигэру
Премьер-министр Японии Кисида, Фумио
Премьер-министр Японии в 2021-2024 годах Премьер-министр Японии (2021/10/04-2024/10/01) Хатояма, Юкио
Демократическая Партия Японии Премьер-министр Японии (2009/09/16-2010/06/04) организации Демократическая Партия Японии Либерально-демократическая партия (Япония) Политические партии Японии соц_роль Премьер-министр Японии
