Polymarket
Activity Drops 40%
as CFTC Seeks
to Halt Kalshi
Prediction Platform
Polymarket is managing to hold its ground despite regulatory pressures on
election-related prediction platforms.
The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently introduced a
proposed rule targeting prediction markets, which led to Kalshi becoming the
latest platform affected. This uncertainty has begun to impact Polymarket,
raising concerns about its future in the current regulatory environment.
Polymarket Daily Active Traders Drop Nearly 40%
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According to Dune , Polymarket has seen a significant drop in daily active
traders, decreasing by 39.4% from 12,595 on Wednesday to 7,627 on Sunday.
Similarly, daily trading volume plummeted 85.6%, falling from $37.2 million to
$5.35 million over the same period.
The decline in activity mirrors the broader challenges facing election-related
prediction platforms amid increased regulatory scrutiny. As reported by
BeInCrypto, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed a
rule to limit certain event contracts , particularly those tied to political
events, contributing to the downturn in Polymarket s metrics.
Read more: Crypto Regulation: What Are the Benefits and Drawbacks? Polymarket
Daily Volume, Daily Active Traders. Source: Dune
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According to the commodities regulator, event contracts like those offered by
Polymarket carry risks associated with election-related gambling . Several
crypto executives have resisted this attack, including Ethereum• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Ethereum co-founder
Vitalik Buterin• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Бу » Бутерин, Виталик , Gemini co-founders the Winklevoss twins and Coinbase CLO
Paul Grewal.
However, the CFTC remains firm, as shown by its ongoing conflict with Kalshi,
a US-based prediction market for event contracts. The CFTC argues that markets
like Kalshi are vulnerable to manipulation, citing specific examples in its
filings:
Traders on Polymarket trying to manipulate contracts related to Kamala Harris’
potential victory in the 2024 US presidential election.
A fabricated poll on PredictIt showed musician Kid Rock leading Senator Debbie
Stabenow in a Senate race. Notably, this incident significantly affected the
pricing of contracts for Stabenow’s reelection.
CFTC Wants Kalshi Prediction Market Blocked
It is worth mentioning that this is not the first of Kalshi’s encounters with
the CFTC. In November 2023, the platform filed a lawsuit against the
regulator, challenging a decision to bar Kalshi from listing political event
contracts on potential Congress chambers’ leaderships.
Fast-forward to September 6, District Court Judge Jia Cobb ruled in favor of
Kalshi, partly allowing it to offer election-related betting.
“Kalshi just legalized trading on elections in the US. For the first time in
100 years, Americans will have access to legal election markets at scale.
Historic moment for financial markets,” Kalshi’s founder, Tarek Mansour,
shared on X.
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However, the CFTC challenged this determination, filing an emergency motion
for a 14-day stay on Kalshi’s election markets. The regulator also filed a
notice to appeal the court’s decision, but Judge Cobb criticized the move,
calling out the regulator for overstepping its authority by trying to shut
down Kalshi’s election markets. CFTC Stay Motion Against Kalshi. Source:
CourtListener
The regulator’s push to block Kalshi has made prediction market participants
skeptical about Polymarket, with some saying it could be next. One user on X,
however, advertising as an iGaming regulation expert, calls for
a balance between innovation and democracy.
“It s clear that the intersection of prediction markets and election
integrity is a tightrope walk. The CFTC s concerns highlight the need
for rigorous oversight. But let s ponder — can we strike a balance where
innovation thrives without compromising democratic principles?” the user wrote
.
Read more: How Can Blockchain Be Used for Voting in 2024?
Even as prediction markets face criticism from regulatory bodies, mainstream
companies are interested in these event contracts. Recently, Bloomberg
integrated Polymarket on its terminal . This suggests increasing recognition
of the role of decentralized prediction platforms as the November elections
approach .
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Disclaimer
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Канадско-российский программист, сооснователь журнала Bitcoin Magazine, сооснователь проекта Ethereum Ethereum (2014-***)
